India's exports reached a six-month high, growing by 18 per cent to USD 45.2 billion in May, driven by electronic goods, petroleum products, engineering items, and pharmaceuticals. However, the trade deficit widened to USD 28.21 billion due to a 10 per cent rise in imports, particularly petroleum products and gold, amidst surging crude oil prices.
A recently finalised peace deal between the US and Iran, set to be signed on June 19, is expected to significantly benefit India's economy by boosting exports to West Asia, stabilising the rupee, and easing inflationary pressures, according to exporters and experts.
Oil-marketing companies (OMCs) are set to significantly expand the sale of flex fuel (E85) across India, with plans to reach 5,000 outlets in major cities by the end of next year, according to Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. This move aims to boost ethanol demand, reduce crude oil imports, and cut carbon emissions, coinciding with the launch of India's first flex-fuel vehicles by Maruti Suzuki and Hero MotoCorp.
Global oil prices fell on Thursday to their lowest levels since before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, offering a significant economic tailwind for India, the world's third-largest crude importer, by easing inflation risks, reducing the import bill and improving the government's fiscal position.
'Every year we import approximately $70 billion worth of gold -- closer to $72 billion in 2025-2026, an all-time record.' 'There is no parallel for this anywhere in the world. And this love for gold will not disappear overnight.'
Russian shipments averaged 1.67 million barrels per day in January compared to 1.48 million bpd in December and 1.53 million bpd a year earlier.
Indian stock markets are set to be influenced by developments in US-Iran negotiations, crude oil prices, and foreign investor activity in the upcoming holiday-shortened week, according to market analysts.
When asked about Bessent's announcement allowing certain Russian oil sales to India and whether the US is considering any other moves, including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), Trump said, "If there were some, I would do it just to take a little of the pressure off."
India has refuted claims of payment issues hindering crude oil imports from Iran, clarifying that refiners have the flexibility to source oil from various global suppliers. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas addressed reports of a tanker rerouting to China, emphasising standard industry practices and secured oil requirements.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed immediate demand-side measures, including remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced air travel, to mitigate the impact of a global oil supply shock caused by Middle East disruptions.
Analysts predict that the ongoing US-Iran conflict, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and foreign institutional investor (FII) flows will be the primary factors influencing Dalal Street this week, with inflation concerns adding to investor anxiety.
The Kremlin has stated that India is free to purchase oil from any country, dismissing claims that India agreed to reduce Russian oil imports. Russia maintains that energy trade with India benefits both nations and contributes to international energy market stability.
The Indian rupee plummeted to a new all-time closing low of 95.81 against the US dollar, driven by surging crude oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and a strengthening dollar index.
India possesses two months of fuel stockpiles and faces no supply concerns despite global energy disruptions, according to Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. However, state-run fuel retailers are incurring losses of up to Rs 1 lakh crore in a single quarter due to elevated crude prices and unchanged retail fuel prices, raising questions about the sustainability of these losses.
India has capped gold imports under the Advance Authorisation scheme at 100 kg, a day after significantly increasing import duties on precious metals. This move aims to tighten conditions for duty-free gold imports by jewellery exporters and curb non-essential imports amidst a ballooning import bill.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
A US-sanctioned tanker carrying Iranian crude oil has rerouted mid-voyage from its previously indicated destination of India to China, raising questions about payment issues and the future of India's Iranian oil imports.
The Indian government has increased import duties on gold and silver from 6 per cent to 15 per cent to curb inbound shipments of precious metals amid a rising import bill due to the West Asia crisis.
The rupee has been among the The RBI uses the Iran-US peace deal to bolster its forex reserves.
A senior government official asserts India's independence in purchasing Russian oil, stating that US sanctions waivers merely remove friction but do not dictate India's energy policy. The official highlights India's commitment to energy security and affordability for its citizens.
'When I look at India's relative valuations, these are by far the lowest I have seen in my 35-year career.' 'The relative 12-month trailing performance is among the weakest I have seen, and foreign investor positioning is at a 16-17 year low.'
President Trump claims American tariffs imposed on India for purchasing Russian oil have negatively impacted Russia's economy, referring to India as Russia's major oil buyer. He also mentioned plans to meet with Putin and Zelenskyy, and claimed to have solved several wars, including the conflict between India and Pakistan.
Greer said that India has taken down some digital services taxes and is moving tariffs down.
Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh, director, Delhi School of Economics.
A US official has stated that India's continued purchase of Russian oil is a point of contention in the relationship between the two countries, as it helps fund Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.
The rupee weakened to a record low against the US dollar due to Gulf tensions, rising oil prices, and foreign capital outflows.
'Historically, India has depended on the Middle Eastern Gulf for nearly 90 per cent of its LPG imports. Shifting to alternative suppliers is not something that can happen quickly.'
India's procurement of Venezuelan crude oil has picked up momentum since April and the South American nation has already emerged as the third largest oil supplier to the country.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, rallied significantly following a sharp decline in crude oil prices. This decline was triggered by US President Donald Trump's announcement of progress in negotiations with Iran towards a peace agreement, which led to renewed optimism in global markets.
The report notes that equities had faced pressure from elevated valuation premiums, subdued nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and earnings growth, sustained foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling, artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure euphoria, and external shocks including US tariffs and a spike in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia. However, several of these factors are now reversing.
Indian oil-marketing companies (OMCs) have incurred LPG underrecoveries of approximately Rs 22,000 crore between March and May 2026, as domestic cooking gas prices failed to keep pace with surging international rates exacerbated by the West Asia crisis, according to a Crisil report.
The government on Thursday restored liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supplies to commercial consumers such as hotels, restaurants and other businesses to pre-crisis levels, and lifted sector-specific restrictions imposed during the recent West Asia conflict, in a sign that energy supply concerns are easing as global markets stabilise.
'FPIs are unlikely to return unless there is equilibrium between valuation premium and earnings growth.'
Formerly Iran's second-largest oil customer, Indian financial institutions were forced to withhold crude oil payments following the 2018 US sanctions.
Replacing over a third of India's oil imports at competitive rates is going to be a challenge, said traders from State refiners, even though some progress was made in the last two months.
India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
Indian stock markets are poised for volatility this week, driven primarily by the outcomes of five state assembly elections, ongoing high crude oil prices amid West Asia tensions, and the release of Q4 corporate earnings, according to market analysts.
A potential US-Iran peace deal, expected to be signed on June 19, is anticipated to ease geopolitical stress and benefit various sectors, particularly in India, with analysts suggesting investors await finer details before making significant moves.
Global energy markets saw a significant correction as oil prices nosedived following Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened, dismantling the 'war-risk' premium that had gripped the market.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty surged significantly in early trade, tracking a global rally fueled by US President Donald Trump's declaration of an end to the war with Iran and a subsequent drop in crude oil prices.
